Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

SYRIAMIDDLE EASTISRAELGEOPOLITICSTURKEY
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

91

Good

24h vol

$1,354

7d vol

$41,903

Open int.

$40,368

Activity

11 traders · 11 signals · updated 58 min. ago

Score breakdown

1 hr. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 4.5¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.05

No Lead

Mid 95.5¢·Bid 0.95·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.045,
    0.955
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 41902.925774,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1354.384168,
    "open_interest_usd": 40368.2181
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":13480.0992,"sell":1087.75}
  • 200 {"buy":24483.8277,"sell":6661.6774}
  • 500 {"buy":42354.8532,"sell":13752.9346}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1145,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":5929.71,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":4665.3,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":889.64,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":2125.34,"price":0.91}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":14041.77,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":11344.05,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":8002.08,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":10130.29,"price":0.99}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":14041.77,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":11344.05,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":8002.08,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":10130.29,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1145,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":5929.71,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":4665.3,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":889.64,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":2125.34,"price":0.09}