Iran leadership change by December 31?

Iran leadership change by December 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 7/1/2027, 11:59:00 AM

POLITICSIRANGEOPOLITICSKHAMENEIIRAN REGIMEAYATOLLAHMOJTABAMOJTABA KHAMENEIKHAMENEI OUTMOJTABA OUT
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

94

Good

24h vol

$26,395

7d vol

$147,319

Open int.

$118,650

Activity

44 traders · 44 signals · updated 11 min. ago

Score breakdown

10 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 14.5¢·Bid 0.14·Ask 0.15

No Lead

Mid 85.5¢·Bid 0.85·Ask 0.86

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Iran leadership change by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.14500000000000002,
    0.855
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 147318.836704,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26394.920695,
    "open_interest_usd": 118650.4742
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":206.06699999999998,"sell":1946.3654000000004}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":11956.2446,"sell":1167.713}
  • 200 {"buy":34523.992399999996,"sell":12360.2174}
  • 500 {"buy":258363.0549,"sell":17116.549899999998}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":13902.61,"price":0.14}
  • {"size":25939.94,"price":0.13}
  • {"size":252935.81,"price":0.12}
  • {"size":1410.73,"price":0.11}
  • {"size":55017.93,"price":0.1}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1373.78,"price":0.15}
  • {"size":13324.41,"price":0.16}
  • {"size":5153.33,"price":0.17}
  • {"size":584.23,"price":0.18}
  • {"size":495.16,"price":0.19}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1373.78,"price":0.85}
  • {"size":13324.41,"price":0.84}
  • {"size":5153.33,"price":0.83}
  • {"size":584.23,"price":0.82}
  • {"size":495.16,"price":0.81}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":13902.61,"price":0.86}
  • {"size":25939.94,"price":0.87}
  • {"size":252935.81,"price":0.88}
  • {"size":1410.73,"price":0.89}
  • {"size":55017.93,"price":0.9}