Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

IRANSTRAIT OF HORMUZOILGEOPOLITICSTOLL
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$392

7d vol

$44,024

Open int.

$39,209

Activity

—

Score breakdown

6 hr. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.8¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.01

No Lead

Mid 99.2¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 0.99

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.008,
    0.992
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 44023.736467,
    "volume_24h_usd": 392,
    "open_interest_usd": 39208.73956
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":83051.9483,"sell":9820.29433}
  • 200 {"buy":83051.9483,"sell":9820.29433}
  • 500 {"buy":83051.9483,"sell":19430.654329999998}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":38.87,"price":0.99}
  • {"size":610.24,"price":0.989}
  • {"size":363.63,"price":0.985}
  • {"size":1194.43,"price":0.984}
  • {"size":7777,"price":0.983}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":466,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":1200,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":1550,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":2500,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":6962.85,"price":0.998}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":466,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":1200,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":1550,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":2500,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":6962.85,"price":0.002}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":38.87,"price":0.01}
  • {"size":610.24,"price":0.011}
  • {"size":363.63,"price":0.015}
  • {"size":1194.43,"price":0.016}
  • {"size":7777,"price":0.017}