Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPMIDDLE EASTPEACE DEALNEGOTIATION TOPICSNUCLEARGEOPOLITICSIRAN CEASEFIREU.S. X IRAN
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

95

Good

24h vol

$6,230

7d vol

$16,761

Open int.

$85,989

Activity

16 traders · 17 signals · updated 26 min. ago

Score breakdown

1 hr. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 5.5¢·Bid 0.05·Ask 0.06

No Lead

Mid 94.5¢·Bid 0.94·Ask 0.95

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.055,
    0.945
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 16760.881758000003,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6230.210002,
    "open_interest_usd": 85988.8069
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":2723.3365,"sell":13522.369999999999}
  • 200 {"buy":44433.550899999995,"sell":32160.035}
  • 500 {"buy":113250.613,"sell":40054.9559}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":14385.5,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":20040.5,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":6438.85,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":1656.79,"price":0.91}
  • {"size":515,"price":0.9}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2866.67,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":43448.14,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":18022.44,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":23089.41,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":28997.65,"price":0.99}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2866.67,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":43448.14,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":18022.44,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":23089.41,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":28997.65,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":14385.5,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":20040.5,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":6438.85,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":1656.79,"price":0.09}
  • {"size":515,"price":0.1}