Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPMIDDLE EASTPEACE DEALNEGOTIATION TOPICSNUCLEARGEOPOLITICSIRAN CEASEFIREU.S. X IRAN
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

91

Good

24h vol

$2,747

7d vol

$144,801

Open int.

$67,536

Activity

17 traders · 17 signals · updated 7 min. ago

Score breakdown

25 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 8.85¢·Bid 0.09·Ask 0.09

No Lead

Mid 91.15¢·Bid 0.91·Ask 0.91

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

Click a column to sort

Loading signals…

Top traders

Click a column to sort

Loading traders…

Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0885,
    0.9115
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 144801.107482,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2746.918048,
    "open_interest_usd": 67535.66479
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":242.52499999999998,"sell":2.112}
  • 200 {"buy":242.52499999999998,"sell":2.57484}
  • 500 {"buy":270.23319999999995,"sell":2.57484}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":90.20516,"sell":8991.65742}
  • 200 {"buy":3336.80504,"sell":14339.16868}
  • 500 {"buy":73558.04076,"sell":16525.69668}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":24,"price":0.088}
  • {"size":5.32,"price":0.087}
  • {"size":20,"price":0.081}
  • {"size":49,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":200.1,"price":0.078}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2725,"price":0.089}
  • {"size":177,"price":0.091}
  • {"size":126.1,"price":0.092}
  • {"size":150,"price":0.093}
  • {"size":4076.27,"price":0.094}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2725,"price":0.911}
  • {"size":177,"price":0.909}
  • {"size":126.1,"price":0.908}
  • {"size":150,"price":0.907}
  • {"size":4076.27,"price":0.906}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":24,"price":0.912}
  • {"size":5.32,"price":0.913}
  • {"size":20,"price":0.919}
  • {"size":49,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":200.1,"price":0.922}