Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANOILHOUTHISYEMENGEOPOLITICSBAB EL-MANDEB
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

94

Good

24h vol

$8

7d vol

$3,943

Open int.

$40,809

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 hr. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.3¢·Bid 0·Ask 0

No Lead

Mid 99.7¢·Bid 1·Ask 1

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Houthis enter Aden by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.003,
    0.997
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 3942.536051,
    "volume_24h_usd": 8.33,
    "open_interest_usd": 40809.08095
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":4037.59034,"sell":13982.335850000001}
  • 200 {"buy":4037.59034,"sell":21070.051580000003}
  • 500 {"buy":4037.59034,"sell":22105.96768}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3504.52,"price":0.002}
  • {"size":540.62,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":353.34,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":3693.03,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":10015.94,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":6999.97,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":211.18,"price":0.021}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":353.34,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":3693.03,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":10015.94,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":6999.97,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":211.18,"price":0.979}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3504.52,"price":0.998}
  • {"size":540.62,"price":0.999}