Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSGERMANYWORLD
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$11,606

7d vol

$43,834

Open int.

$77,565

Activity

23 traders · 23 signals · updated 7 min. ago

Score breakdown

57 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 3.35¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.04

No Lead

Mid 96.65¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.97

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Event

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.03350000000000001,
    0.9665
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 43834.33962400001,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11606.185439,
    "open_interest_usd": 77565.48075
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":9.374750000000002,"sell":321.92}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":24524.53153,"sell":2261.2861599999997}
  • 200 {"buy":57504.167369999996,"sell":7007.09927}
  • 500 {"buy":333503.37801000004,"sell":22214.8222}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":267.85,"price":0.965}
  • {"size":59,"price":0.962}
  • {"size":377.75,"price":0.961}
  • {"size":1083.5,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":149,"price":0.959}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":10060,"price":0.968}
  • {"size":697.27,"price":0.969}
  • {"size":13683.77,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":320,"price":0.972}
  • {"size":540,"price":0.975}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":10060,"price":0.032}
  • {"size":697.27,"price":0.031}
  • {"size":13683.77,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":320,"price":0.028}
  • {"size":540,"price":0.025}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":267.85,"price":0.035}
  • {"size":59,"price":0.038}
  • {"size":377.75,"price":0.039}
  • {"size":1083.5,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":149,"price":0.041}