France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSFRANCEPROTESTSEUROPEWORLDFRANCE RIOTS
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

95

Good

24h vol

$10,932

7d vol

$1,740,396

Open int.

$153,454

Activity

3 traders · 3 signals · updated 57 min. ago

Score breakdown

12 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 7.5¢·Bid 0.07·Ask 0.08

No Lead

Mid 92.5¢·Bid 0.92·Ask 0.93

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

France declares state of emergency by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.07500000000000001,
    0.925
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 1740395.9060809999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10931.769128,
    "open_interest_usd": 153453.9059
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":11245.039200000001,"sell":10606.956}
  • 200 {"buy":36820.061,"sell":44670.895000000004}
  • 500 {"buy":134678.6503,"sell":119026.54480000002}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":11529.3,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":37432.9,"price":0.91}
  • {"size":79041.63,"price":0.9}
  • {"size":2318.44,"price":0.89}
  • {"size":1312.24,"price":0.88}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":12091.44,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":27207.47,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":80126.63,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":18049.85,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":4546.84,"price":0.97}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":12091.44,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":27207.47,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":80126.63,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":18049.85,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":4546.84,"price":0.03}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":11529.3,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":37432.9,"price":0.09}
  • {"size":79041.63,"price":0.1}
  • {"size":2318.44,"price":0.11}
  • {"size":1312.24,"price":0.12}