Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?

Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/29/2028, 12:59:00 PM

FINANCEFEDFED RATESECONOMYECONOMIC POLICYKEVIN WARSH
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

97

Good

24h vol

$17,456

7d vol

$20,633

Open int.

$44,602

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 days ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.2¢·Bid 0·Ask 0

No Lead

Mid 99.8¢·Bid 1·Ask 1

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

Click a column to sort

Loading signals…

Top traders

Click a column to sort

Loading traders…

Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Resolution source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Event

Fed rate cut by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.002,
    0.998
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 20633.077817,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17456.4,
    "open_interest_usd": 44602.37256
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":1725.9723000000001,"sell":32868.082729999995}
  • 200 {"buy":1725.9723000000001,"sell":32868.082729999995}
  • 500 {"buy":1725.9723000000001,"sell":35025.494739999995}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1727.7,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":510.2,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":319.99,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":25.44,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":28.15,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":10.2,"price":0.007}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":510.2,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":319.99,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":25.44,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":28.15,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":10.2,"price":0.993}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1727.7,"price":0.999}