Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/29/2028, 12:59:00 PM

FINANCEFEDFED RATESECONOMYECONOMIC POLICYKEVIN WARSH

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$2,192

7d vol

$17,939

Open int.

$46,465

Activity

3 traders · 3 signals · updated 52 min. ago

Score breakdown

53 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 1.85¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 98.15¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Resolution criteria

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Resolution source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Event

Fed rate cut by...?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0185,
    0.9815
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 17938.861424000002,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2191.5919259999996,
    "open_interest_usd": 46465.3839
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
500 {"buy":0.95,"sell":0.36}

100 {"buy":10125.93256,"sell":1714.43259}
200 {"buy":1228563.68105,"sell":4165.64347}
500 {"buy":1228563.68105,"sell":4485.40118}

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":50,"price":0.981}
{"size":365.73,"price":0.979}
{"size":509.53,"price":0.978}
{"size":615.99,"price":0.974}
{"size":215.06,"price":0.972}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":20,"price":0.982}
{"size":2570,"price":0.983}
{"size":120.58,"price":0.985}
{"size":100,"price":0.986}
{"size":1216.6,"price":0.988}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":20,"price":0.018}
{"size":2570,"price":0.017}
{"size":120.58,"price":0.015}
{"size":100,"price":0.014}
{"size":1216.6,"price":0.012}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":50,"price":0.019}
{"size":365.73,"price":0.021}
{"size":509.53,"price":0.022}
{"size":615.99,"price":0.026}
{"size":215.06,"price":0.028}