Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

TRUMPGEOPOLITICSCUBAMIGUEL DIAZ-CANELPCCCOMMUNIST PARTY OF CUBAOVERTHROWCASTRO
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

94

Good

24h vol

$1,677

7d vol

$24,055

Open int.

$72,476

Activity

7 traders · 7 signals · updated 1 hr. ago

Score breakdown

3 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.6¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.03

No Lead

Mid 97.4¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.026000000000000002,
    0.974
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 24055.395567,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1677.38,
    "open_interest_usd": 72476.08706
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":2950.7569999999996,"sell":12.47735}
  • 200 {"buy":25180.756589999997,"sell":2557.7699399999997}
  • 500 {"buy":1157985.5129500001,"sell":17117.962709999996}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":130,"price":0.023}
  • {"size":654,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":500,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":1524,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.019}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":12.85,"price":0.029}
  • {"size":30,"price":0.041}
  • {"size":397.74,"price":0.042}
  • {"size":1274.17,"price":0.043}
  • {"size":414.78,"price":0.044}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":12.85,"price":0.971}
  • {"size":30,"price":0.959}
  • {"size":397.74,"price":0.958}
  • {"size":1274.17,"price":0.957}
  • {"size":414.78,"price":0.956}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":130,"price":0.977}
  • {"size":654,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":500,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":1524,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.981}