China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

CHINATAIWANGEOPOLITICSFOREIGN POLICYWORLDHFC
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$3,150

7d vol

$13,625

Open int.

$85,666

Activity

26 traders · 26 signals · updated 22 min. ago

Score breakdown

30 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.55¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.03

No Lead

Mid 97.45¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.025500000000000005,
    0.9745
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 13624.538116,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3149.948859,
    "open_interest_usd": 85665.90603
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0.18433999999999998,"sell":1.1645}
  • 500 {"buy":0.18433999999999998,"sell":1.1645}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":7411.54594,"sell":3718.19365}
  • 200 {"buy":176648.7715,"sell":5731.89873}
  • 500 {"buy":879344.6644600001,"sell":26106.194929999998}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":46.58,"price":0.025}
  • {"size":509.56,"price":0.023}
  • {"size":560.89,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":769.99,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":1095,"price":0.02}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":7.09,"price":0.026}
  • {"size":78.45,"price":0.027}
  • {"size":47.89,"price":0.028}
  • {"size":20,"price":0.029}
  • {"size":90.6,"price":0.03}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":7.09,"price":0.974}
  • {"size":78.45,"price":0.973}
  • {"size":47.89,"price":0.972}
  • {"size":20,"price":0.971}
  • {"size":90.6,"price":0.97}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":46.58,"price":0.975}
  • {"size":509.56,"price":0.977}
  • {"size":560.89,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":769.99,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":1095,"price":0.98}