Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/4/2026, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSELECTIONSREFERENDUMTAXESREFERENDUMS MIDTERMSFISCALBALLOT MEASURES
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$26,802

7d vol

$530,845

Open int.

$96,387

Activity

43 traders · 44 signals · updated 9 min. ago

Score breakdown

48 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 22.5¢·Bid 0.22·Ask 0.23

No Lead

Mid 77.5¢·Bid 0.77·Ask 0.78

Price (MID)Entropy1·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

Resolution source

https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

Event

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.225,
    0.775
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 530844.7390170001,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26802.105875999994,
    "open_interest_usd": 96387.2576
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":705.0282000000001,"sell":214.6958}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":761.1942,"sell":2360.3118}
  • 200 {"buy":49679.3688,"sell":10423.303800000002}
  • 500 {"buy":71677.0475,"sell":13605.524200000002}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":975.89,"price":0.22}
  • {"size":61921.74,"price":0.21}
  • {"size":26355.13,"price":0.2}
  • {"size":1127.87,"price":0.19}
  • {"size":220.21,"price":0.18}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3065.34,"price":0.23}
  • {"size":10609.2,"price":0.24}
  • {"size":3836,"price":0.25}
  • {"size":412.46,"price":0.26}
  • {"size":96.97,"price":0.27}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3065.34,"price":0.77}
  • {"size":10609.2,"price":0.76}
  • {"size":3836,"price":0.75}
  • {"size":412.46,"price":0.74}
  • {"size":96.97,"price":0.73}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":975.89,"price":0.78}
  • {"size":61921.74,"price":0.79}
  • {"size":26355.13,"price":0.8}
  • {"size":1127.87,"price":0.81}
  • {"size":220.21,"price":0.82}