Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANSTRAIT OF HORMUZOILHOUTHISSHIPPINGYEMENRED SEAGEOPOLITICSHOUTHIREGIONAL SPILLOVERTRAFFICCAPE OF GOOD HOPE

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

Good

24h vol

$16,212

7d vol

$45,070

Open int.

$111,386

Activity

6 traders · 6 signals · updated 52 min. ago

Score breakdown

56 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 3.75¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.04

No Lead

Mid 96.25¢·Bid 0.96·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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Resolution criteria

https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c

Resolution source

https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c

Event

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.037500000000000006,
    0.9625
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 45069.676913,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16211.71187,
    "open_interest_usd": 111385.71218
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
500 {"buy":195,"sell":181.45907999999997}

100 {"buy":14630.422719999999,"sell":5294.42516}
200 {"buy":15408.822719999998,"sell":11797.879159999999}
500 {"buy":294179.64517,"sell":13252.52168}

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":5040.53,"price":0.036}
{"size":52.94,"price":0.03}
{"size":10000,"price":0.028}
{"size":800,"price":0.027}
{"size":576,"price":0.016}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":5000,"price":0.039}
{"size":390,"price":0.04}
{"size":25.24,"price":0.041}
{"size":95,"price":0.044}
{"size":400,"price":0.049}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":5000,"price":0.961}
{"size":390,"price":0.96}
{"size":25.24,"price":0.959}
{"size":95,"price":0.956}
{"size":400,"price":0.951}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":5040.53,"price":0.964}
{"size":52.94,"price":0.97}
{"size":10000,"price":0.972}
{"size":800,"price":0.973}
{"size":576,"price":0.984}