Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 12/10/2026, 12:59:00 PM

FEDFED RATESECONOMYMACRO SINGLEECONOMIC POLICYKEVIN WARSHCPI RELEASE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

91

Good

24h vol

$67,585

7d vol

$286,969

Open int.

$125,931

Activity

24 traders · 24 signals · updated 33 sec. ago

Score breakdown

7 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 74.5¢·Bid 0.74·Ask 0.75

No

Mid 25.5¢·Bid 0.25·Ask 0.26

Price (MID)Entropy1·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Resolution source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Event

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.745,
    0.255
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 286968.933269,
    "volume_24h_usd": 67585.46426300002,
    "open_interest_usd": 125930.8749
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":1420.9875000000002,"sell":39785.9224}
  • 200 {"buy":1420.9875000000002,"sell":39785.9224}
  • 500 {"buy":23725.343500000003,"sell":62750.149300000005}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":13978.8376,"sell":473.6625}
  • 500 {"buy":13978.8376,"sell":473.6625}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1894.65,"price":0.25}
  • {"size":11127.81,"price":0.24}
  • {"size":14651,"price":0.23}
  • {"size":3289.68,"price":0.22}
  • {"size":4723.08,"price":0.21}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":53764.76,"price":0.26}
  • {"size":9855.49,"price":0.27}
  • {"size":6273.71,"price":0.28}
  • {"size":15848.8,"price":0.29}
  • {"size":11901.6,"price":0.3}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":53764.76,"price":0.74}
  • {"size":9855.49,"price":0.73}
  • {"size":6273.71,"price":0.72}
  • {"size":15848.8,"price":0.71}
  • {"size":11901.6,"price":0.7}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1894.65,"price":0.75}
  • {"size":11127.81,"price":0.76}
  • {"size":14651,"price":0.77}
  • {"size":3289.68,"price":0.78}
  • {"size":4723.08,"price":0.79}