Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/4/2026, 7:59:00 AM

POLITICSELECTIONUS ELECTIONSENATEMAPMIDTERMSOHIO MIDTERMALASKA MIDTERMIOWA MIDTERMKANSAS MIDTERMMAINE MIDTERMMICHIGAN MIDTERMTEXAS MIDTERMBUILD YOUR MAPBUILD YOUR OWN MAPSENATE MAP
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$148,812

7d vol

$220,433

Open int.

$1,749,468

Activity

2 traders · 2 signals · updated 55 min. ago

Score breakdown

55 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 24.5¢·Bid 0.24·Ask 0.25

No Lead

Mid 75.5¢·Bid 0.75·Ask 0.76

Price (MID)Entropy1·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Event

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.245,
    0.755
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 220433.01316200002,
    "volume_24h_usd": 148811.846477,
    "open_interest_usd": 1749467.7492
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":258291.59,"sell":15286.032}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":48405.768000000004,"sell":774874.77}
  • 200 {"buy":777222.3488,"sell":1570860.0176}
  • 500 {"buy":777924.3488,"sell":1790371.0176}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":63691.8,"price":0.24}
  • {"size":946515.04,"price":0.23}
  • {"size":900,"price":0.22}
  • {"size":5.46,"price":0.19}
  • {"size":5.9,"price":0.18}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1033166.36,"price":0.25}
  • {"size":1075655.74,"price":0.26}
  • {"size":300700,"price":0.27}
  • {"size":312.6,"price":0.29}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.32}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1033166.36,"price":0.75}
  • {"size":1075655.74,"price":0.74}
  • {"size":300700,"price":0.73}
  • {"size":312.6,"price":0.71}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.68}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":63691.8,"price":0.76}
  • {"size":946515.04,"price":0.77}
  • {"size":900,"price":0.78}
  • {"size":5.46,"price":0.81}
  • {"size":5.9,"price":0.82}